American Gladiators

These primaries are turning into a longer version of American Gladiators. I wonder how good it is for America for them to be played out over a long period of time. I suppose that most people do not come here to read about politics, but it is politics and how they effect the world around me that first got me interested in the markets, so we could say it's my first love.

First of all I will let ya'll know my affiliaton. I'm a Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative Republican, I guess some would say a Country Club Republican, but obviously those people have never seen me play golf. I volunteered for Mitt Romney's campaign here in Iowa as much as I was able too, and was sad to see the one person who truely understands the economy, economics and turning around a sinking ship leave the race. Ok, thats more than enough about me.

Where do I see things. Let's start with the Democrats, to me they are alot more interesting. What we are finding is that for the most part African American's and more educated Whites tend to swing in favor of Obama. In some place this is a large swing, in others closer to 55/45 type, but in any case Obama is winning this group. Hillary tends to fair well with blue color workers (think manual labor, unions etc) Among Hispanics and Asians Billary has a clear lead, which is not too hard to understand given the historical anamosity that is yet to be resolved between the African American community and the Hispanic and Asian Communties. As I see Mrs Clinton is going to come into the convention a few votes behind Mr Obama, however she has two tricks up her sleave. FIRST, I cant imagine a situation in which the delegation from Michigan and my second home state of Florida will not be allowed to partake. If you thought Bush/Gore was a bloody mess, this would make that look like a picnic. It would cause a huge crisis, not only in the democratic party, but for America as a whole. So, once the folks from Michigan and Florida have been counted and the "super delegates" have had a say, I think Hillary Clinton will come out as the nominee for President. This is not going to come easy though, and Obama is not going to conseed for nothing, and I suspect she will nominate him as VP. This will actually work out very well for Obama, follow me here. One of the biggest "strikes" he has against him is that he wont be ready to take on the job "from day one" (really is anyone??). Well serving as Hillary Clinton's VP for 4 or 8 years will certainly take care of that. He is also young enough (44??? I think) that serving 8 years as Hillaries VP will have no effect on his ability to next become President.

As for the Republicans, I wish I thought McCain had a chance to win, but between the far right wing, who will just pack up the toys and stay home, and the historical ticket of Hillary/Obama, I'm afraid he will not have a chance. As republicans our best bet will be to put everything we have into winning back our seats in the House and Senate. This, in theory, should not be too hard as the Congress, at 20%, has an even lower job approval rating than Mr. Bush at about 30%.

In most countries when the numbers get this low tanks roll into the capital and the Milatary takes over. Be thankfull then that at least we are Americans for that. We may not like the government we have, but we do have the opportunity every four years to change it.