Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Just the Facts
The S&P500 lost 4.51 points for the day, closing at 1328.32
The NASDAQ lost 14.42 points on the day, closing at 2275.82
The Small cap S&P600 was down 1.32, ending the day at 362.67.
Nasdaq Volume came in around 1.5 billion shares, with declining issues clearly in the lead. We saw 13 New Highs made and 166 New Lows made.
NYSE volume came in about 1.05 billion shares, declining issues beat out advancing issues on the NYSE as well. We saw 49 New Highs and 87 New Lows.

Random Rants and a few Rational Thoughts.

On March 20th the major market averages put in a follow through day. A follow through day is a pretty simple concept that everyone should be aware of. Briefly, a follow through days occurs when, four to seven days after a market puts in a bottom the indexes close significantly higher on significant volume. This tends to confirm that the prior bear phase has ended for the time being and its time for investors and trades to look for leading stocks in leading groups to buy. A follow through day, it's important to note, does not mean that a new leg up has begun, but no significant move to the upside has occurred without one.

So, on March 20th the market delivered us a FTD, but I gotta say it's not acted well at all. Typically after a follow through day I'd like to see new names breaking out of bases and leading the market into higher ground. At the very least I'd like to be seeing old names breaking into higher ground and carrying the market back to higher levels. We have seen old leaders re-establish themselves, especially Ags, Fertilizers and other commodity backed names. These types of names are likely to remain in a bull market until we realize how stupid it is to burn our food for energy while half the world starves (oops day I say that?) and the dollar stops its decline. To me the biggest problem with this rally has been the lack of participation at any real level by the financial stocks, I've never seen a meaningful rally begin without them coming out to the park to play as well, but with lingering fears over write downs in the Sub Prime situation, confidence in that group is likely some time away.

As I scanned the markets meager offers this morning and last night I have not been able to come up with very many groups or stocks to catch my eye. Like I said the Ags have their own little thing going on, but the air is getting pretty thin up there by now and we are just now starting to see the rumblings of backlash against biofuels. I have maintained very limited exposure to the market, remaining still around 80% in cash with my accounts at their high water mark currently. As one of my money management clients recently told me “You sure are not the most exciting guy around, but I sleep well when the market is going crazy knowing that you will take care of my money”.

A few stocks are worth mentioning for possible longs including LNN and CSX. Both of these I would only take as add on positions if I already owned them from the breakouts last week. APA and other oil stocks continue to put in superior performance and are likely to offer good buying opportunity on the first pullback so long as volume remains light and the decline orderly. PVA is a small oil and gas company that might be setting up here. The Buckle (BKE) is certainly one of the stronger names in retail land and I plan to pick up some of it myself should it break above the high of this flag its currently forming on the daily charts.

On the short side I only have a few names. I like IWM (small caps) as well as AUY should they break lower at this point. Should that happen I will be a seller of both of them.

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